The Shape of Things to Come

When I talk to other economists, we can all come up with plausible scenarios that essentially cover the ballpark, with more letters describing the shape of the recovery than are in the alphabet. None of us, however, is willing to attach a whole lot of probability to any of them. I wouldn't bet the farm on any one of the cockamamie scenarios we economists predict, where there will be X% growth and companies can now [act on this assumption] in terms of their markets. There is just too much uncertainty, most of it regarding government policy.

Russ Banham is a contributing editor of CFO.

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